PaschalisFatichiZscheischlerEtAl2020

Référence

Paschalis, A., Fatichi, S., Zscheischler, J., Ciais, P., Bahn, M., Boysen, L., Chang, J., De Kauwe, M., Estiarte, M., Goll, D., Hanson, P.J., Harper, A.B., Hou, E., Kigel, J., Knapp, A.K., Larsen, K.S., Li, W., Lienert, S., Luo, Y., Meir, P., Nabel, J.E.M.S., Ogaya, R., Parolari, A.J., Peng, C., Peñuelas, J., Pongratz, J., Rambal, S., Schmidt, I.K., Shi, H., Sternberg, M., Tian, H., Tschumi, E., Ukkola, A., Vicca, S., Viovy, N., Wang, Y.-P., Wang, Z., Williams, K., Wu, D., Zhu, Q. (2020) Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand? Global Change Biology, 26(6):3336-3355. (Scopus )

Résumé

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily–monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal–annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

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@ARTICLE { PaschalisFatichiZscheischlerEtAl2020,
    AUTHOR = { Paschalis, A. and Fatichi, S. and Zscheischler, J. and Ciais, P. and Bahn, M. and Boysen, L. and Chang, J. and De Kauwe, M. and Estiarte, M. and Goll, D. and Hanson, P.J. and Harper, A.B. and Hou, E. and Kigel, J. and Knapp, A.K. and Larsen, K.S. and Li, W. and Lienert, S. and Luo, Y. and Meir, P. and Nabel, J.E.M.S. and Ogaya, R. and Parolari, A.J. and Peng, C. and Peñuelas, J. and Pongratz, J. and Rambal, S. and Schmidt, I.K. and Shi, H. and Sternberg, M. and Tian, H. and Tschumi, E. and Ukkola, A. and Vicca, S. and Viovy, N. and Wang, Y.-P. and Wang, Z. and Williams, K. and Wu, D. and Zhu, Q. },
    JOURNAL = { Global Change Biology },
    TITLE = { Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand? },
    YEAR = { 2020 },
    NOTE = { cited By 2 },
    NUMBER = { 6 },
    PAGES = { 3336-3355 },
    VOLUME = { 26 },
    ABSTRACT = { Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily–monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal–annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd },
    AFFILIATION = { Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif sur Yvette, France; Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain; CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Catalonia, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States; Institute for Plant Sciences and Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel; Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C, Denmark; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI, United States; Department of Biology Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munchen, Germany; Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), UMR5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE, Montpellier, France; International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, United States; School of Plant Sciences and Food Security, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plants and Ecosystems), Biology Department, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China; Center for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang, China },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { drought; irrigation; rainfall manipulation experiment; terrestrial biosphere models },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1111/gcb.15024 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85081960195&doi=10.1111%2fgcb.15024&partnerID=40&md5=cf476bc920308217b3c57ae066ae116e },
}

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